Monetary Blog
Investigations into Federal Reserve policy, tested against 90 years of archival documents.
The Privilege
Buffett identifies four features of the monetary landscape — reserve currency vulnerability, banking fragility, contagion speed, and crisis response adequacy — and the archive validates his...
Read articleThe Compound
Buffett names Powell and Volcker as his two Fed heroes and proposes two remedies — zero inflation, stability paramount — that the archive shows are mutually incompatible with the heroes'...
Read articleThe Precedent
Miran constructs his dissent from five historical precedents: the Greenspan productivity bet, the 'classic reasoning' of looking through supply shocks, the disinflationary power of deregulation,...
Read articleThe Guide
Miran proposes shrinking the Fed's balance sheet by $1–2 trillion through destigmatizing the discount window, easing LCR requirements, and normalizing MBS holdings — a comprehensive reform...
Read articleThe Unanimity
The FOMC's most consequential failures share a common architecture: unanimous votes masking unresolved analytical disagreement. The transcripts reveal what the votes concealed.
Read articleThe Retreat
Four changes across 240 words. Every one performs a function the statement cannot name. The Fed is narrowing what it claims to know — while preserving every element of the architecture that will authorize the next cut.
Read articleThe Insulation
The public narrative of Federal Reserve independence rests on institutional architecture — the 1951 Accord, fourteen-year terms, transparency norms, explicit inflation targets — presented as...
Read articleThe Circuit
An analyst submits a five-link causal hypothesis tracing transmission from a Qatar LNG disruption through Japan's balance-of-payments stress into US Treasury markets and financial conditions.
Read articleThe Reserve
Bessent proposes dismantling the post-crisis liquidity framework, calling the self-insurance mandate a fundamental mistake born of crisis trauma, blaming the LCR for entrenching discount window...
Read articleThe Underlying
Waller dissents in favor of a rate cut and publicly articulates a framework built on four claims: 'looking through' tariff-driven inflation is traditional central bank wisdom, expectations are...
Read articleThe Window
Vice Chair Bowman proposes to reform a liquidity framework the Federal Reserve spent fifty years documenting as unreformable. The archive confirms the diagnosis. The prescription has already been tested and found inert.
Read articleThe Aggregate
Business-cycle research holds that recessions originate in a small number of interest-rate-sensitive sectors. The FOMC Insight Engine tests whether the Fed tracks them — and what happens to two layers of warning inside the committee's consensus process.
Read articleThe Paradox
A labor market analysis of 45.4 million job postings reveals Simpson's Paradox at work — and the same paradox has operated inside the Federal Reserve's treatment of inflation data for fifty-three years.
Read articleThe Reweight
Vice Chair Bowman proposes loosening the post-crisis mortgage capital framework. The FOMC Insight Engine tests every claim against the deliberations that produced it.
Read articleThe Position
Governor Miran assembled five individually defensible arguments into a unified case for rate cuts. The FOMC Insight Engine tested each against 83 years of documentary evidence. The archive scored his most original observation at 1.0 and his central empirical claim at 0.1.
Read articleThe Assay
Judy Shelton invokes Volcker, dismisses Phillips Curve reasoning, proposes gold-backed bonds, and promises rate cuts will rescue small business. Four queries to the FOMC Insight Engine — 90 years of transcripts, staff memos, and internal deliberations — test every claim against the documentary record.
Read articleThe Translation
The Fed's January statement is not what it appears to be. We decoded every phrase against 89 years of documents. Here is what it actually says.
Read articleThe Nominee
Kevin Warsh made five specific claims about what's broken at the Fed. We tested them against 90 years of documents. Five claims. Five confirmations.
Read articleThe Measure
Documentary evidence from 90 years of FOMC materials reveals how the Federal Reserve's choice of inflation measure—and the 'special factors' narratives it required—served institutional adaptation to fiscal dominance rather than methodological judgment.
Read articleThe Precondition
The 2020 transcripts just dropped. We asked a simple question about the Fed's real mandate. The documents answered with ninety years of evidence.
Read articleThe Dissenter
The documents show Kevin Warsh wasn't always a Fed critic. What changed him—and what he saw that the public never heard.
Read articleThe Transmission
A phrase in today's Fed speech sent us into the archives. What we found explains fifteen years of rising inequality.
Read articleThe Confession
On January 14, 2026, a Federal Reserve Governor said publicly what the institution had hidden for forty years. We have the documents to prove it.
Read article